De mannen zijn het eens, we gaan vertrekken. Morgenmdiddag gooien we los. Spannend, maar lekker om nu toch echt te gaan. Bootje is klaar en wij zijn klaar. Voor de liefhebbers heb ik ons routeadvies bijgevoegd.
For Adam and Leonie Kok on s/v ELENA
Pressure reading for your barometer from Tongatapu at 6pm Monday is
1017 .
Weather pattern is looking OK for a Tuesday departure....
Situation and comments:
1. Equinoctial Gales over NZ should ease over Northland by the weekend.
Equinox is on Thursday, and also a full moon.
2. We should encounter a squally front and briefly disturbed and
showery S flow on Wed 22 Sep.
3. A ridge of High pressure is expected to move east along 30S and
bring us light winds / settled weather on Thu Fri 24/ Mon 27 Sep.
4. ..then, after a period of prefrontal N flow, hopefully get to Opua
around 29 Sep, front is due there around 30 Sep.
I am using EXPEDITION http://effil.tripod.com for routing with latest
Oceanic and GFS data output.
VPP for sailing up to 6-7 Kt. If you make faster progress that's OK.
Disclaimer: weather is a mix of pattern and chaos. The real world
unravels away from the models shown here. Computer data does not do well
near a coast or in a trough. In a tropical convergence zone computer
gives averaged-out light winds, but occasional squalls can deliver 30
knots for 30 minutes. If your baro strays away from target pressure more
than 5 hPa the forecast needs updating. Time HH:MM is hours and
minutes in UTC. Lat and Long are in degrees and minutes PPPP is
barometer in hPa, Wind is compass octant coming FROM and lull~avg~gust
is in knots. HDG@kt is heading to in degrees true and knots. TWA is the
angle between the true wind and the boat heading, P for wind on port and
S for wind on Starboard. Waves are in metres, sig=average of top third,
ocnl=1 in 100, or 3 per hour.
Departing Tongatapu noon Tuesday = 210000utc
and taking the NW route to open sea
winds near the coast may well be affected by a sea breeze.
UTC HH:MM Lat: Long: hPa lull~avg~gust COG@SOG TWA Sig~ocnl
AirT
21-Sep 00:00 21:08S 175:13W 1018 ~06~07~10 307@04.4 P172 * 2.6~4.0m
24.5
At next line, when clear NW of Tongatapu head off along 204 deg true
21-Sep 02:40 21:01S 175:22W 1016 SE07~09~14 204@04.8 P062 * 2.6~3.9m
24.6
21-Sep 09:00 21:31S 175:37W 1018 SE07~09~13 204@04.6 P063 * 2.5~3.8m
24.3
21-Sep 15:53 22:01S 175:51W 1016 SSE05~06~10 204@03.8 P040 * 2.4~3.5m
21.9
21-Sep 23:30 22:31S 176:06W 1017 S 02~02~03 204@04.0 P035 * 2.2~3.3m
23.7
22-Sep 06:46 23:01S 176:21W 1016 W 06~07~11 204@04.2 051S F 2.1~3.1m
21.9
22-Sep 12:45 23:31S 176:36W 1017 WSW10~13~19 205@05.5 048S F**
2.1~3.1m 22
When winds turn to be from the S , head west
22-Sep 18:24 24:01S 176:51W 1017 SW12~15~22 270@06.1 P052 ** 2.3~3.4m
23
22-Sep 19:38 24:01S 176:59W 1017 SSW10~12~18 270@05.9 P078 2.3~3.5m
23
22-Sep 20:53 24:01S 177:07W 1017 S 10~12~18 270@06.0 P103 2.4~3.6m
23.1
At next line when winds turn to be more from E head for offshore Opua
22-Sep 22:05 24:01S 177:16W 1018 SSE10~13~20 212@05.9 P058 2.4~3.7m
23.1
23-Sep 02:49 24:26S 177:33W 1019 SE11~14~21 212@06.4 P082 2.9~4.4m
20
23-Sep 07:51 24:52S 177:50W 1019 ESE10~12~19 212@06.1 P100 3.4~5.1m
22.5
23-Sep 13:06 25:17S 178:08W 1021 ESE10~12~18 212@06.0 P105 3.6~5.4m
19
23-Sep 18:29 25:43S 178:26W 1022 ESE10~12~19 212@06.1 P100 3.4~5.1m
21.8
23-Sep 23:51 26:08S 178:43W 1022 ESE10~13~19 212@06.2 P104 3.1~4.6m
20.3
24-Sep 05:02 26:33S 179:01W 1023 ESE11~14~21 212@06.4 P105 2.7~4.1m
18.6
24-Sep 10:11 26:59S 179:20W 1023 E 10~12~18 213@06.0 P105 2.5~3.7m
20.1
24-Sep 15:26 27:24S 179:38W 1023 E 09~11~17 213@05.8 P120 2.4~3.6m
18.7
24-Sep 20:48 27:49S 179:56W 1024 E 09~11~17 213@05.8 P131 2.3~3.5m
20.3
25-Sep 02:13 28:14S 179:45E 1024 E 09~12~17 213@05.9 P116 2.3~3.4m
19.9
25-Sep 07:34 28:40S 179:27E 1025 ESE11~14~21 213@06.5 P115 2.2~3.3m
17.7
25-Sep 12:51 29:05S 179:08E 1026 ESE10~13~19 213@06.2 P107 2.0~3.0m
18.2
25-Sep 18:09 29:30S 178:49E 1027 ESE08~10~14 213@05.4 P098 1.8~2.6m
16.5
Light winds of subtropical ridge from now until 34S
25-Sep 23:33 29:55S 178:30E 1027 ESE07~09~14 214@05.2 P092 * 1.6~2.4m
16.3
26-Sep 05:04 30:20S 178:11E 1027 SE07~09~14 214@05.2 P089 * 1.4~2.1m
16.1
26-Sep 10:48 30:45S 177:51E 1028 ESE05~06~09 214@05.0 P095 * 1.3~2.0m
17.9
26-Sep 17:01 31:10S 177:32E 1028 E 04~05~07 214@05.0 P134 * 1.3~1.9m
17.7
26-Sep 23:39 31:35S 177:12E 1028 E 03~04~06 214@05.0 P132 * 1.2~1.8m
15.7
27-Sep 06:05 31:59S 176:52E 1028 E 03~03~05 214@05.1 P118 * 0.0~0.0m
17.2
27-Sep 13:43 32:24S 176:32E 1027 NE01~01~02 215@03.0 P152 * 0.0~0.0m
16.8
27-Sep 21:51 32:49S 176:11E 1026 N 04~05~08 215@04.6 156S * 0.0~0.0m
16.4
28-Sep 04:17 33:13S 175:51E 1025 N 06~07~11 215@04.9 143S * 0.0~0.0m
16.2
28-Sep 10:16 33:38S 175:30E 1024 N 08~10~15 215@05.5 128S * 0.0~0.0m
16.4
From here on in there should be an increasing NNW flow ahead of a front
coming in from the west
28-Sep 15:32 34:03S 175:09E 1022 NNW10~13~20 215@06.4 124S 0.0~0.0m
16.2
28-Sep 20:06 34:27S 174:48E 1021 NNW12~15~23 216@06.8 118S 0.0~0.0m
16.1
29-Sep 00:29 34:51S 174:27E 1019 NNW14~18~26 216@07.0 120S 0.0~0.0m
16
When offshore Opua head inshore, next line ...
29-Sep 04:49 35:16S 174:05E 1017 NNW15~18~27 156@06.8 179S 0.0~0.0m
15.8
29-Sep 05:18 35:19S 174:07E 1017 NNW15~18~27 Opua
distance 1048.60nm route time 8d 05h 18m
F=FRONT
*= motoring with light winds
**= motoring into the wind, or fall off for comfort but that will take
longer.
Updates from ZKLF Radio fax on 3247.4, 5807, 9459, 13550.5 or 16340.1
kHz Or High Seas on ZLM 6224 kHz and 12356 kHz at 0303Z, 0903Z, 1503Z
and 2103Z and on 8297 kHz and 16531 kHz 30 minutes later or send email
to query@saildocs.com, No subject, saying SEND http://bit.ly/subtropic
Or email position report to bob.mcdavitt@metservice.com